Mainstreamekonomer har hittills varit skeptiska till tesen om teknologisk arbetslöshet, huvudsakligen pga historiska orsaker - de jobb som försvann inom jordbruket ersattes av nya jobb inom tillverkningsindustrin och jobben som försvann inom tillverkningsindustrin ersattes av nya jobb inom tjänstesektorn. Motargumentet är förstås att historien inte alltid upprepar sig och att teknologisk utveckling i synnerhet kan leda till brytpunkter där världen för alltid förändras.
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Kanske börjar mainstreamekonomernas skepsis nu avta. Nobelpristagaren Paul Krugman uppmärksammar på sin blogg att den ekonomiska ojämlikheten i allt mindre utsträckning handlar om löneskillnader mellan arbetare; istället ser vi en polarisering mellan arbete och kapital som bland annat beror på teknologisk arbetslöshet:
The American economy is still, by most measures, deeply depressed. But corporate profits are at a record high. How is that possible? It’s simple: profits have surged as a share of national income, while wages and other labor compensation are down. The pie isn’t growing the way it should — but capital is doing fine by grabbing an ever-larger slice, at labor’s expense.
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Indeed, recent college graduates had stagnant incomes even before the financial crisis struck. Increasingly, profits have been rising at the expense of workers in general, including workers with the skills that were supposed to lead to success in today’s economy.
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Why is this happening? As best as I can tell, there are two plausible explanations, both of which could be true to some extent. One is that technology has taken a turn that places labor at a disadvantage; the other is that we’re looking at the effects of a sharp increase in monopoly power. Think of these two stories as emphasizing robots on one side, robber barons on the other.
